The United States’ top general has issued a warning, stating that Ukraine has approximately six weeks remaining before adverse weather conditions begin to impede its counteroffensive efforts. Despite this, Kyiv is indicating its willingness to continue fighting through the winter.
General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, conveyed this message during an interview with the BBC on Sunday. He estimated that there was still a window of approximately 30 to 45 days with favorable weather for combat operations. After this period, the onset of mud and rain is expected to hinder battlefield maneuverability.
In alignment with the optimistic messaging from the Biden administration, Milley highlighted that the counteroffensive had made “very steady progress” since its commencement in early June. He emphasized that the Ukrainians remained determined and the outcome of the conflict was still uncertain.
Reports on Sunday indicated only marginal gains in one of Ukraine’s primary attack areas, near the village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region, which lies en route to the strategic town of Tokmak.
An unofficial Telegram channel associated with Ukraine’s 46th brigade, a reliable information source, reported advancements to the east of a neighboring village. However, it cautioned that Russian forces still held advantageous high ground nearby.
Meanwhile, an online update from the southern ‘Tavria’ command reported ongoing incremental progress in the Robotyne area, stating that approximately 1.5 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory had been liberated. However, the update did not specify the time frame for these gains.
President Volodymyr Zelensky asserted that Ukraine maintained the initiative, but cautioned against viewing the counteroffensive as a short feature film. One of Zelensky’s senior security officials, Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, acknowledged the slower pace of the counteroffensive due to well-planned Russian defensive lines and minefields. Despite the approaching cold weather, Budanov affirmed that hostilities and the counteroffensive would persist.
Retired US General David Petraeus also offered a similar prognosis, suggesting that the conflict would extend into the winter during a separate conference in Kyiv.
Comparisons were drawn to Ukraine’s previous counteroffensive in 2022, which lasted several months. Russian forces were pushed out of the Kharkiv region, culminating in the recapture of Lyman by Ukrainian forces. The counteroffensive in the south continued for an additional six weeks, ending with the liberation of Kherson.
Debates persist among analysts and policymakers regarding whether Ukraine should maintain momentum and whether Western allies have provided adequate weaponry and ammunition to facilitate such a strategy. Supporters of Kyiv express concerns that halting offensive operations during the winter could allow Russia to fortify its defenses further.
